Meeting record

April 29, 2026

meeting_id · 20260429DIRECTION HIT

The call vs. the outcome

The Committee

HOLD

0 bp · 3.50% – 3.75%

The simulation

HOLD

0 bp · 3.50% – 3.75%

0 bp

Rate error

75.0%

Vote alignment

Analysis note

Direction and magnitude matched.
The model flagged three dissents (Michelle W. Bowman, Stephen I. Miran, Neel Kashkari). The actual outcome had four (Stephen I. Miran, Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, Lorie K. Logan), three over the statement's easing-bias language rather than the rate.

Voting record

Voting record · 12 voters

Stephen I. Miranpreferred to cut by 25 bp✓ Model match · same 25 bp cut, locked 2026-04-23

Beth M. Hammackopposed easing-bias language (held the rate)

Neel Kashkariopposed easing-bias language (held the rate)✓ Model flagged dissent (different reasoning)

Lorie K. Loganopposed easing-bias language (held the rate)

Statements, side by side

Committee statement

April 29, 2026

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Share

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

Simulated statement

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. However, the national economic outlook has been complicated by a significant external supply shock originating from the Middle East, which resulted in a 50 percent surge in front-month crude oil futures during the recent intermeeting period. While aggregate growth remains resilient, the Committee must reconcile this resilience with an inflation trajectory that remains somewhat elevated and subject to renewed upward pressure from energy inputs. Job gains have remained low in recent months, and the unemployment rate has been little changed.

Deliberation trace

A preview of the locked simulated deliberation — the opening of each phase, 31 exchanges in all.

Phase 1: Grounded Briefing1

STACEY TEVLIN

The current national economic outlook is defined by a complex intersection of resilient aggregate growth and a significant external supply shock originating from the Middle East. While the domestic economy continues to expand at a solid pace, the Committee must reconcile this with a sudden 50 percent surge in front-month crude oil futures that has complicated the disinflationary path. As we convene on April 28, 2026, the federal funds rate sits at 3.50% - 3.75%, following a period of stability intended to assess the durability of the current expansion against these emerging price pressures.

Phase 2: Open Deliberation13

Anna L. Paulson

The current resilience in aggregate economic activity, which continues to expand at a "solid pace" 📖 statement_20260318.md, masks a growing divergence in how households are absorbing recent price shocks. While aggregate figures remain robust, there is clear evidence that the surge in energy costs is beginning to weigh on the consumption floor of the economy.

Phase 3: Strategic Proposal [inherited regime: neutral]1

CHAIR POWELL

STEP 1: The strongest case for MAINTAINING the current target range

Anchored Inflation Expectations: Despite a 50 percent surge in front-month crude oil futures 📖 minutes_202603.md, forward measures of inflation compensation beyond one year remain "little changed" 📖 minutes_202603.md, suggesting the markets view the shock as transitory and current policy as credible.

Ongoing Policy Lag: Previous tightening continues to filter through the economy, as evidenced by "rising mortgage rates" which have already "dampened buyer demand" 📖 Beigebook_202604.md and the fact that "credit standards tightened" 📖 Beigebook_202304.md.

Balanced Labor Risks: While "job gains have remained low" 📖 statement_20260318.md, the unemployment rate is "little changed" 📖 statement_20260318.md, indicating a labor market that is cooling toward equilibrium rather than contracting sharply.

Phase 4: Formal Vote12

Jerome H. Powell

VOTE: Assent, PROJECTION: 3.75%