March 18, 2026
The call vs. the outcome
- Direction and magnitude matched.
- The model flagged two dissents (Christopher J. Waller, Stephen I. Miran). The actual outcome had one (Stephen I. Miran).
Voting record
Statements, side by side
March 18, 2026
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Share
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT, March 18, 2026. Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low in recent months, but the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization at a historically low level. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. In the latter half of 2025, inflation moved up from earlier levels, and while longer-term inflation expectations remain firmly anchored, progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective has been non-linear in recent reporting periods.
Deliberation trace
A preview of the locked simulated deliberation — the opening of each phase, 31 exchanges in all.
Phase 1: Grounded Briefing1
The national economic outlook as we enter the March 17, 2026, FOMC meeting is characterized by a "solid pace" of expansion, yet it remains shaded by persistent uncertainty regarding the path of inflation and the durability of the labor market 📖 statement_202601.md. Since the conclusion of the previous tightening cycle and the subsequent recalibration of the federal funds rate to its current range of 3.50% to 3.75%, the Committee has shifted toward a more balanced risk-management posture. However, the stabilization of the unemployment rate alongside "somewhat elevated" inflation suggests that the "last mile" of policy normalization requires a nuanced assessment of aggregate data 📖 statement_202601.md.
Phase 2: Open Deliberation13
The Chair’s call for evidence-based arguments is essential as we evaluate whether our current stance is effectively restrictive or merely neutral in the face of structural economic shifts. While aggregate economic activity is expanding at a "solid pace," the national data reveals a stark bifurcation in how households and firms are navigating this environment 📖 statement_202601.md. On one hand, we see that "low to moderate income consumers were seen to be increasingly price sensitive," suggesting that current rates are placing significant pressure on discretionary household spending 📖 Beigebook_202601.md. On the other hand, a new driver of resilience has emerged in the industrial sector, with "boosts in demand from data centers and, relatedly, energy infrastructure" providing a buffer against traditional interest-rate sensitivity 📖 Beigebook_202602.md.
Phase 3: Strategic Proposal [inherited regime: neutral]1
STEP 1: Strongest Case for Maintaining the Current Target Range
Phase 4: Formal Vote12
VOTE: Assent, PROJECTION: 3.50%