Meeting record

January 28, 2026

meeting_id · 20260128DIRECTION HIT

The call vs. the outcome

The Committee

HOLD

0 bp · 3.50% – 3.75%

The simulation

HOLD

0 bp · 3.50% – 3.75%

0 bp

Rate error

90.0%

Vote alignment

Analysis note

Direction and magnitude matched.
The model flagged one dissent (Stephen I. Miran). The actual outcome had two (Stephen I. Miran, Christopher J. Waller).

Voting record

Voting record · 12 voters

Stephen I. Miranpreferred to cut by 25 bp✓ Model flagged dissent (different reasoning)

Christopher J. Wallerpreferred to cut by 25 bp

Statements, side by side

Committee statement

January 28, 2026

For release at 2:00 p.m. EST Share

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

Simulated statement

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has edged up through the second half of 2025, although it remains low by historical standards. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated. While long-term inflation expectations appear to remain well-anchored, shorter-term indicators and market reassessments regarding potential supply-side shocks, including the likely effects of trade policy and tariffs, have introduced renewed uncertainty into the price stability outlook.

Deliberation trace

A preview of the locked simulated deliberation — the opening of each phase, 31 exchanges in all.

Phase 1: Grounded Briefing1

STACEY TEVLIN

As we convene for this first meeting of 2026, the Committee faces a landscape characterized by a recalibration of risks. While the previous year was defined by a pivot toward addressing labor market downside risks, the recent firming of inflation data complicates the path toward further normalization of the federal funds rate. The current target range of 3.50% to 3.75% represents a significantly less restrictive stance than that held a year ago, yet we must evaluate whether this level is consistent with our dual-mandate goals given the recent "upward move" in price indicators 📖 statement_20251210.

Phase 2: Open Deliberation13

Anna L. Paulson

While I concur with the Chair’s emphasis on a data-driven approach, we must reconcile the "moderate pace" of current expansion with the reality that "inflation has moved up since earlier in the year" 📖 statement_20251210. The resilience in the real economy is underscored by how "capital expenditures on equipment and infrastructure related to AI... accelerated this year" 📖 minutes_202512, indicating that certain high-growth sectors remain relatively insensitive to our current policy stance and continue to drive demand for credit and labor.

Phase 3: Strategic Proposal [inherited regime: easing]1

CHAIR POWELL

STEP 1: The strongest case for MAINTAINING the current target range

Inflation Firming: Inflation has "moved up since earlier in the year" and "remains somewhat elevated," suggesting that the progress toward our 2 percent objective has encountered renewed volatility that requires a cautious stance 📖 statement_20251210.

Economic Resilience: The economy continues "expanding at a moderate pace," supported by specific drivers such as "capital expenditures on equipment and infrastructure related to AI" which have "accelerated this year," indicating that current financial conditions are not excessively restrictive for high-growth sectors 📖 statement_20251210.

External Price Risks: There is a notable "reassessment by some market participants of the likely effect of tariffs on near-term inflation," which could introduce new supply-side pressures that would complicate further easing 📖 minutes_202512.

Phase 4: Formal Vote12

Jerome H. Powell

VOTE: Assent, PROJECTION: 3.25%